To be honest, I do not believe that people will move from an iPhone to an Android handset because it happens to have cool or 'must have' applications; I believe that people will move from one to the other because the Android platform is 'good enough', has enough of the same features, is cheaper than the iPhone. I don't buy into Steve Job's idea that quantity of quality applications is what matters - the statement pertaining to application quantity or quality is marketing fluff that works only when the sheeple take it in fully and lasts only fleetingly before the American populace is onto the next thing, keeping up with the Jones'.
I draw similarities between the marketing done for the iPhone and its applications to Rosie the Riveter. When the war was over and all the women who had been working to make the machines of war for their men who were off fighting were being told to go back to the house and the kitchen so that the returning men could have jobs, common marketing and media helped to reinforce the idea that doing so would be good allaround. You saw shows like Leave it to Beaver and other media outlets depicting the perfect house wives in high heels, cooking and cleaning. Eventually that pervasive depiction of the perfect house wife became a main steam understanding again and womens place was the house and home, the kitchen, doing house work in heels and having dinner on the table when their 'Man' came home.
People don't specifically need killer android applications in order to choose the Android Platform. They need something that is 'good enough' or 'similar enough' at a reasonable price. Given a choice people might choose the iPhone to have the same thing as a friend driven by pressure from their friend to purchase and pay the premiums associated - I believe what will eventually happen is that the pressure applied will dissipate, the need to keep up with the Jones' will dissipate and 'good enough' will do for most people. I do want Android to be a great platform, but honestly I think having something 'good enough' that allows me to do as I please with the device is much more appealing - voted with my dollars and purchased an Android phone when I could have gotten the iPhone 4.